Hurricane Season officially begins today. Here's the:
2009 hurricane forecast
How and if global warming influences hurricane formation is still a matter of genuine scientific debate. In recent years, scientists have at least identified several factors -- from the extent of rainfall in Africa to the presence or absence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific -- that help them predict the intensity of a hurricane season ahead of time. Here's what the two most prominent forecasters have to say:
The federal government has predicted a "near normal" hurricane season for the Atlantic with a 25% chance of above-normal outbreaks and 25% chance of below-normal outbreaks -- though overall, forecasters expressed a greater degree of uncertainty this year than they have in past years.
The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's predicts a 70% chance of:
Named storms: 9-14
Hurricanes: 4-7
Major hurricanes: 1-3
The other major forecaster in the U.S., the University of Colorado, recently revised down its expectations for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season:
Named storms: 12
Hurricanes: 6
Major hurricanes: 2
Further, the Colorado forecasters predicted the following probabilities that a major hurricane could strike the U.S., all of which are about average for the past century:
Entire U.S. coastline: 54%
U.S. East Coast (including peninsula Florida): 32%
Gulf Coast (from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas): 31%
Caribbean: Average
2009 hurricane and tropical storm names - Atlantic
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
http://green.yahoo.com/blog/daily_green_news/75/2009-hurricane-predictions-plus-storm-names.html
I will start picking up some non-perishable food items and some of our 'comfort' foods like chocolate chip cookies, animal crackers and pretzels. For some reason I always crave ice cream. After Gustav last year we went to 4 different stores until we finally found ice cream.
Nothing has changed for us, Emile is still essential and we have to stay. I am not yet sure if we can bring Rufus this time. I already have a Plan B and one of my dear friends will take him out of town for me. Let's just say a prayer that it all won't have to happen.
3 comments:
sounds emile and dan share a point of view there... last year dan was like "i am not leaving my house just to get stuck in traffic." dan hates traffic... it's reason enough for him to stay. :-)
nix da hurricane season.... this year, we just skip it...lol
@Julie: We would actually leave town ahead of time if we could; but if we left Emile would loose his job. I would never stay at my house, b/c it flooded during Katrina. Being at the hospital is not too bad. If your house never flooded I'd stay, too. Traffic is such a pain.
@Danii: I'm with you, let's skip it :)
Post a Comment